Detroit Tigers Summer Check Up


Detroit Tigers

31-36 (2nd in AL Central)



Eye Popping Number

6.9%

In the age of three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, and homeruns), the walk rate has continued to rise in baseball. That’s why it stands out when a team that has Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, two of the best batting eyes in baseball over the last decade or so, are last in baseball with a 6.9% walk percentage. That would have finished 4th worst in baseball last year. The team is lead by a 2nd year player in Jeimer Candelario with 24 walks this season, which ranks 73rd in baseball. They are compensating by striking out the 7th least in the league. But unfortunately they have the second least amount of home runs. So of the three outcomes, they’re only not terrible in one of them.

Biggest Surprise

Matt Boyd came to Detroit in the David Price trade in 2015, the middle of his rookie season. While he’s gotten plenty of chances to start in the Tigers’ rotation over the last few seasons, he’s put up some pretty bad numbers. With the rotation pretty bare coming into the season after trading Justin Verlander last year and Jordan Zimmerman spending time on the DL, Boyd has finally taken advantage of his opportunity to become the best pitcher on the Tigers staff, and one of the best in baseball this year. He has the 28th best ERA for any pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched this season at 3.20. He isn’t going to light up the strike out leaderboards, but he’s doing a good job of keeping runners off base, and limiting the home run, which has led to his surprising season.

Player to Watch

Nick Castellanos was a top third base prospect for the tigers coming into the league in 2013. He struggled in his first couple of years, which is a bummer for the Tigers because that was they’re best window to win. But after deciding to go by Nicholas and playing right field, he’s become a legitimate force at the plate. He has a top 15 batting average at .321, and is third in the league with 22 doubles. For a team looking for pop, Castellanos is one of the best options on the trade market. Could he be the next Tigers outfielder who becomes one of the best hitters in baseball after a midseason trade, following JD Martinez last year?

What to Watch for at the Deadline

Even though they are only 5.5 games back of the Cleveland Indians for the AL Central lead, the Tigers will be sellers at this year’s deadline. While they probably won’t find any takers for Cabrera or Martinez, they have quite a few pieces that can bring back a good return of prospects. Casellanos has two extra years of control and would bring back the largest return of anyone on the team. Leonys Martin is having a renaissance with his bat to go along with his good defending and would be a good fit for a team looking for a fourth outfielder. Jose Iglesias is a free agent at the end of the year and would be a good match looking for a rental shortstop. Boyd, Francisco Liriano and Mike Fiers could be going to a new team looking for depth at starting pitching just to make it to the postseason, maybe not looking for another postseason starter. The biggest question mark is Michael Fulmer. The 2016 Rookie of the Year has 5 years of control after this season and has great stuff, unfortunately he’s having the worst season of his career so his stock isn’t as high. If he can go on a run here over the next 5 or 6 starts, then the Tigers will get lots of calls asking about his availability, but most likely he will remain a Tiger through the end of the year.


*All stats as of 6/12 via fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

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