2017 AL Preview

Welcome to Part 2 of my 2017 MLB Preview. To view my NL Preview in Part 1, CLICK HERE.

Ok, so I’m a week and a half late on this… But teams haven’t even made it two turns through their starting rotations yet. My cousin texted me yesterday complaining about the Rangers’ pitching, and I responded, “Chill. You’re nine games into a 162 game season.” So I think that should suffice as an excuse here. Don’t worry, I tried not to let any of what has already happened affect my opinions on what will happen. In fact, I already had this lined as the season was starting, all I had left to do was fill in the reasoning. There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s get into what will happen with the Red Sox and their new shiny toy, Chris Sale, the Baby Bombers of the Bronx, the defending AL Champion Indians, and who will win the Silver Boot between the Rangers and Astros.

AL EAST

The Boston Red Sox made the biggest move of the offseason when they traded the number one rated prospect and others to the Chicago White Sox for Chris Sale. So a team with the 9th best starting rotation ERA, and reigning AL Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello, gains one of the premier starting pitchers in the game. They also added Tyler Thornburg to solidify their bullpen. The only problem will be keeping the staff healthy, as David Price, Thornburg, Carson Smith and Drew Pomeranz all started the season on the DL. Regardless of if the pitching staff stays healthy, they boast arguably the best offense in baseball right now. Last year they led the Majors in runs and batting average by a wide margin. Granted, they do have to replace retired, future Hall of Famer, David Ortiz, who had the best season of his career last season. They signed Mitch Moreland, and Pablo Sandoval is healthy after missing last season and is in the best shape of his life, and rookie, Andrew Benintendi has his eyes set on winning Rookie of the Year after a great beginning to his career in a brief appearance last season.

The Toronto Blue Jays are essentially bringing back the same team from last year that went to the AL Championship. They did lose 42 home runs and a lead leading 127 RBIs in Edwin Encarnacion, but they’re getting 30 home runs, 93 RBIs and saving $60 million with Kendrys Morales. Troy Tulowitzki had a rough first full season outside of Coors Field, even though the Rogers Centre is as hitter friendly as any other stadium. However, he did stay healthy, which was unheard of over the past few seasons for him. If he continues to stay healthy, look for him to bounce back. They had the best ERA in the AL last season, and that was with ace, Marcus Stroman, having the worst season of his young career. He was dominant during the World Baseball Classic, and always seems to show up in big games, so look for him to lead the pitching staff this year to another solid year.

The New York Yankees are bringing back the Bronx Bombers nickname of old, but with some of their top prospects of the 2nd best farm system in the league, hence the nickname ‘Baby Bombers.’ The leader of the Baby Bombers is catcher, Gary Sanchez. After midseason trades last year, it appeared the front office had thrown in the towel for 2016, but Sanchez had other plans. After getting called up on August 3rd, in 53 games he finished with 20 home runs. If he kept that pace, he would break the homerun record that Barry Bonds needed 22 seasons to set halfway through his 12th season. Sanchez is joined by Greg Bird and created video game character, Aaron Judge to be youth of the squad. They are complemented nicely by experienced veterans like Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and offseason acquisition, Matt Holliday. Pitching wise, the bullpen is set up to be elite with Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, but outside of Masahiro Tanaka, the starting rotation could use some help. CC Sabathia showed flashes of his younger self last season, but can he keep it up for a whole season? Look for them to try and trade for a starter with their loaded farm system IF they are in contention. If not, they are perfectly content going into the offseason saving their money for when Bryce Harper becomes a free agent.

The final two spots in this division seem to be a toss up. The Tampa Bay Rays are loaded in pitching while their offense could use some work. The Baltimore Orioles are the exact opposite, but I’ll get to them in a second. Last year the Rays finished with a .42 winning percentage (68-94). What’s hidden in that record is the 48 games that Kevin Kiermaier missed with injury. When healthy, they had a .47 winning percentage (54-60). While that’s not going to make the playoffs, they struggled mightily without the best defensive player in the game manning center field. Ace, Chris Archer, looks to bounce back after seemingly giving up home runs left and right. He did finish second in the AL in strikeouts last season, so his stuff is still there to be dominant. They are going to need bounceback seasons from Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson to raise their batting average from last in the AL. If not, then pitchers like Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi could be playing for different teams come August.

Like I mentioned earlier, the Orioles are all offense and no pitching. Well, no starting pitching, they do have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, lead by Zach Britton, who had historically the best season for a relief pitcher ever last season. They are the key that make the team go. Offensively, they are pretty average when it comes to batting average and on base percentage, but they shy away from the ‘small ball’ philosophy by having 28 more home runs than anyone else last year and only 19 stolen bases. Kevin Gausman has ace potential, or maybe just really good pitcher potential, if he could stay healthy maybe we can find out. Wade Miley and Chris Tillman both started the season on the DL, meaning there are only 3 starting pitchers on the roster right now. For the last 5 seasons, everyone’s said the same thing about them not having enough pitching to compete, and they’ve made the postseason in two of them, both in even numbered years. It’s an odd numbered year, so they’ll miss it this season.

AL CENTRAL

Last year’s American League Champions, the Cleveland Indians, were one win away from winning the World Series, but could not close a 3-1 series lead against the Cubs. They did so while major contributors from their 2015 team, Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Yan Gomes, were all out with injury, and Trevor Bauer hampered with an injury. They’re all back healthy this year. They also signed Encarnacion from the Blue Jays to replace free agent, Mike Napoli, who is an upgrade in just about every hitting category, however he hasn’t consistently played in the field in a few years since he became the full time DH in Toronto. They have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, as evidenced by the second best ERA in the AL last season. And you might have heard of the ultimate bullpen weapon, Andrew Miller, who almost singlehandedly took them to the World Series last season after arriving in a midseason trade with the Yankees.

Going into the 2016 season, it seemed like it was finally going to be the Detroit Tigers’ year. Their weak link over the past season has been their bullpen, and it had seemed that they finally fixed it over the offseason. Nope. They finished with the 7th worst bullpen ERA last season. Unfortunately, they didn’t make any moves to bolster that part of the squad this offseason other than cut one of their main acquisitions from last winter, Mark Lowe. Fortunately, they are bringing back the whole starting rotation that finished with the 10th best ERA among rotations last year. Justin Verlander looks to grab the Cy Young his fiancee, Kate Upton, and myself thought he deserved, and AL Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer, looks to build off a solid start to his career. The 3rd highest batting average in the league is paced by future Hall of Famer, Miguel Cabrera, and packs a punch with Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton as well. Once JD Martinez returns off the DL, then they are one more outfielder away from having a lineup that can carry the team regardless of how bad the bullpen performs.

Last season, the Minnesota Twins finished with the worst record in the Majors at 59-103. This coming a year after finishing second in the division with a 83-79 record. Which Twins team will show up this year? The cop out answer is obviously somewhere in between, but my bet is closer to the 2015 version. For starters, the pitching staff took a major hit when closer, Glen Perkins, and starter, Phil Hughes missed the majority of the season with injuries. Granted, Perkins will miss significant time again this season, but he should be back to help the team in the dog days of summer, and Hughes is back healthy. The biggest upgrade to the pitching staff is catcher, Jason Castro. Castro is one of the best pitch framers in baseball, according to StatCorner, which Beyond the Boxscore explains here. Catchers that excel at pitch framing are pitchers’ best friends, and Castro definitely helped the Astros pitching staff to become one of the best in baseball. Last year, Brian Dozier mashed his way to being a star with 42 home runs. Miguel Sano looks to replicate that after almost missing half of last season. But the key to the offense is Byron Buxton. He has all 5 tools (hitting for average, hitting for power, fielding, throwing, speed), unfortunately, staying healthy isn’t one of those tools because he hasn’t had that so far in his young career. If he stays healthy, which is a huge if, then he can be the lightning to Dozier and Sano’s thunder.

I’m predicting the Kansas City Royals to be the most disappointing team this season. The reasoning I have behind this is the lack of bullpen depth. Where there once used to be an unhittable trio of Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera, only Herrera remains. Joakim Soria isn’t as reliable as he was in his prime, and Danny Duffy has moved to become the only above average arm in the starting rotation. The offseason losses of Edinson Volquez and the untimely death of Yordano Ventura will leave the starting rotation looking for someone other than Duffy to step up. Offensively, the core of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain led them to the 7th best batting average in the Majors last season and back to back World Series appearances before that. Here’s the kicker, all three are on the last year of their contracts. When the trade deadline rolls around, all three could bring back excellent returns, and if they’re struggling don’t be surprised to see any of the three dealt.

While one Chicago team has their eyes on the World Series this year, the other looks to be in the basement. The Chicago White Sox probably won’t be too upset if they finish with the worst record in the Bigs this season. I’m not sure if they will, but the front office sure is going to try their hardest to. After being one of the biggest winners this offseason, their farm system jumped from the bottom 10 systems to the 3rd best, according to mlbpipeline.com, after trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. After receiving king’s ransoms for those two, that is what they continue to ask for in discussions revolving around Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier and David Robertson. If somehow they can hold onto them until the trade deadline, they will probably get it. Melky Cabrera, Nate Jones and Jose Abreu are other players that teams will call on when the deadline rolls around.

AL WEST

I’m going to be honest here, this is a bit of a homer pick. For so long, I’ve wanted to see the Houston Astros be great, and after years of them being just flat out terrible, it looks like they’re finally there. They finished with the 5th best ERA in the American League, with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, but their lack of offensive punch at catcher, outfield, and first base left much to be desired, bringing an offense with Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa to have just average numbers. In come Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick to help bring some more pop, left handed balance, and experience to the youngest group of position players in the Majors. The big key is Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. staying healthy. They have both proven to be a formidable 1-2 punch when they are. If they cannot, however, they could try to trade for a starting pitcher, possibly Quintana from the White Sox, with their abundance of prospects at the AAA level that are log jammed from reaching the Majors. Bold prediction: They win their first Silver Boot against the Rangers since 2014, and definitely do not finish 4-15 against them this year.

Last year the Texas Rangers were the luckiest team in baseball. They finished the season with a +8 run differential which usually leads to an 82-80 record, they finished at 95-67, the best record in the AL. The key to their “luck” was their bullpen, that lead them to winning the most 1 run games in MLB history, but they aren’t going into the season on a high note. Jake Diekman is out until the All-Star break, Keone Kela is starting the season in the minors for disciplinary reasons, and Sam Dyson’s numbers were deceiving for the amount of saves he had last year. After Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, if one other pitcher through the rotation can step up each time, then the starting pitching should be just fine if the bullpen can pull it together. It will be interesting to see which Carlos Gomez shoes up, the one that struggled for the Astros at the beginning of last year, or the one that blossomed for the Rangers after being cut. Mike Napoli is making his homecoming that will make Ranger fans reminiscent of their World Series runs a few years ago, maybe he can bring that magic back and get Adrian Beltre a championship, because after he gets his 500th home run and 3,000th hit, that will be the only thing missing from his Hall of Fame resume.

The busiest team in the offseason was the Seattle Mariners. They made 15 trades that affected the Major League roster, as well as other waiver claims, drops and signings. Their main goal was to upgrade their speed, and that was accomplished with trades for Jarrod Dyson, Jean Segura, and Mitch Haniger. They brought in some pop in Danny Valencia, and they brought in some help for the starting rotation / long relief help in Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly. The main concern here on the team is the bullpen, where other than stud closer, Edwin Diaz, there isn’t a lot of consistent experience. Keep your eye on the name James Paxton. After a somewhat breakout season last year, he looks to take the jump to ‘ace’ status, and his 98 mile per hour fastball should help him get there. Players that aren’t likely to be traded, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Felix Hernandez, are going to hold down the fort and try and bring some of the momentum that almost got them to the playoffs last season and get there for the first time since 2001.

The Los Angeles Angels last season had a very average season at 74-88, and with the best baseball player in the world, that is a giant let down. But here’s the deal, the players that were supporting Trout, offensively, were for the most part, below average. They replaced those players with players that can add value offensively and in the field with outfielders, Cameron Maybin and Ben Revere, and infielders, Luis Valbuena and Danny Espinosa. By adding 4 more players that can add 2ish more WAR (Wins Above Replacement, how much better a player is than a replacement level player), then that can add about 8 wins which would put them over .500 and close to the playoffs. With older pitchers, Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson, no longer on the roster, Garrett Richards needs to stay healthy. He has potential to be a Cy Young candidate with his 97 mile per hour fastball, but he has struggled with injuries over the past few seasons.

Billy Beane has struggled to use Moneyball to get the Oakland Athletics back in the playoff discussion since 2014. He has, however, built up the farm system so that they can be back in a couple of years. After finishing in the bottom 6 in both batting average and ERA last season, that is good news going forward. The potential is very high on the mound. Sonny Gray has shown that he can be an ace, when healthy, and the trio of Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton have given glimpses of ace potential. In his first season as a full time player, Khris Davis (not to be confused with Orioles slugger, Chris Davis) mashed his way to 42 home runs, and he looks to duplicate that success again this year. Unlike other rebuilding teams, the A’s aren’t looking to unload anyone in trades. Maybe relievers, Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, could get a return of prospects. But for the most part, they already have their young core that they’re moving forward with.

AWARD PREDICTIONS

MVP: 

Betting on Mike Trout to win the MVP is like betting on the house. In his 5 years in the Majors, he’s lead all of baseball in WAR, which measures how valuable you are, 4 out of 5 years, and lead the American League all 5 years. He’s simply the best hitter in baseball, and if his team can even sniff the playoffs, he’ll be the main reason why.

Dark Horse: The best player on the best team in the American League last year was Francisco Lindor. There is a new generation of young, superstar shortstops that have arrived over the past couple of years, and Lindor may be the top of the class. He won the Gold Glove last season, proving he’s one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and his .306 career average shows he can swing it. During the World Baseball Classic a few weeks ago, he began to show off some pop. He hit 15 home runs last season, but if he can improve that number to 20 or even 25, he will have a strong case for the MVP.

Cy Young: 

Last year there was no clear cut winner for the AL Cy Young, so Rick Porcello and his AL leading 22 wins came away with the trophy. However, I thought Justin Verlander should have won, and I think that he’ll come away with it this year. After what appeared to be a couple of seasons of getting old and regressing, stats-wise, last year Verlander again proved he’s still one of the premier starters in baseball. He lead the AL in strikeouts with 254, and WHIP (walks + hits / innings pitched) at 1.00. If his bullpen can sustain a few more wins for him, which I explained earlier isn’t too likely, then he has a great shot at being at the forefront of the race again.

Dark Horse: I briefly mentioned this earlier, but James Paxton has Cy Young potential. He’s the hardest throwing left handed pitcher in the league, not named Aroldis Chapman. He finished last season with 8.7 strikeouts per 9 innings, which is greater than Verlander’s career number of 8.5. Last year was the first of his career to reach 100 innings, and it is prefered for winners to reach 200 in a season to show that they maintained a high level of pitching all year, so it will be interesting to see how the Mariners control his innings. As a team, they would likely want him to reach that number because of their lack of depth at starting pitching, but I doubt they will risk injury, and rest him at some point.

Rookie of the Year: 

Similar to my NL pick, Dansby Swanson, Andrew Benintendi is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year due to his excellent performance during a brief appearance as a late season call-up. Since being drafted, he has only struck out 3 more times than he has walked in professional baseball. That kind of discipline is the key to him getting good pitches to hit and why he rose through the Red Sox loaded minor league system so quickly. It also doesn’t hurt that he hits at the top of arguably the most potent lineup in baseball to rack up some runs and RBIs.

Dark Horse: Jharel Cotton also had a good beginning to his career last season, posting a 2.15 ERA over 5 starts. While Cotton won’t blow anyone away with his fastball, like most youngsters these days, he will get you with precision and deception. He only walked 4 batters in his stint last year, and posted a 3.80 strikeout to walk ratio across his 5 professional seasons before this year. He also has a dynamite changeup that he throws almost 30% of the time to keep hitters off balance from his fastball. The A’s have a future ace in their hands with Cotton.

AL Pennant Winner: The Toronto Blue Jays will avenge their 2016 ALCS loss to the Cleveland Indians by defeating them in it this year. Jose Bautista puts an injury riddled 2016 behind him, Marcus Stroman builds off of an impressive World Baseball Classic to anchor the pitching staff. They go back to the World Series since 1993, and lose to the Washington Nationals (there’s my World Series prediction while I’m at it).

Thanks for reading!! Now go enjoy some sunflower seeds, Big League Chew, cracker jacks, and watching Jose Altuve play baseball, because he’s great.