The 2019 Houston Texans Offseason Blueprint

Well, it’s that time of year again. Football season is over (the NFL season, I should say, as I just watched a game of the Alliance of American Football) and the Houston Texans didn’t win the Super Bowl, extending their streak to 16 years since their inception. While there were moments of hope this season, epitomized by a nine game winning streak and a division championship, there were also moments of doubt that the team was as good as their record. Now, owner, Cal McNair, general manager, Brian Gaine, and head coach, Bill O’Brien, have to figure out how to replicate the moments of hope while eliminating the doubt that surrounds the franchise.

Luckily for them, I’m available for hire. Or they can just read this blog for free. However they decide to come to their decisions, this is what they need to do to get to Super Bowl LIV.

There is good news and bad news going into the offseason. The good news is that the team has the seventh most cap space to work with in the NFL ($61.6 million according to Spotrac) as well as two second round picks so they have a lot draft capital to build depth. The bad news is there are gaping holes on the offensive line and in the secondary, and arguably the top free agent on the market, Jadeveon Clowney will either need to be franchise tagged or require top dollar to resign.

First things first. The team can easily gain another $25.8 million in cap space by releasing wide receiver, Demaryius Thomas, cornerback, Kevin Johnson, and tight end, Ryan Griffin. This extra cap space will help resign other players who are set to become free agents like Kareem Jackson, Tyrann Mathieu, Christian Covington and others (we’ll talk about Clowney’s situation later). After those cuts, the team is left with $87.4 million in cap space.

Between Jackson and Mathieu, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sign both of them because they both play their best ball at safety rather than corner, and the team still has two pretty good safeties under contract. There are pros and cons to resigning both players, granted both cons are relatively minor. Jackson will be cheaper on the open market and has been a staple in the Houston secondary for years, but is 4 years older at 30. If the Texans were to resign him, expect a 2-3 year deal around $6 million a year. While Mathieu only joined the Texans for this past season, he was quickly beloved by the fans, he is younger than Jackson, and a bigger name, therefore he will be more expensive. He will probably sign a contract similar to his deal that the Arizona Cardinals cut him from before joining the Texans last off season, 4-5 years around $11 million a year. Based on the cost, the extra $5 million that Jackson would provide to the cap would make him more appealing, but if the Texans can get Mathieu for anything under $50 million, that may be the better option to pair with Justin Reid for their safety tandem of the future. (Remaining cap space: $76.4 million - I’m picking Mathieu in this scenario).

After resigning other players for depth like defensive ends, Covington (3 years, $10 million) and Brandon Dunn (2 years, $5 million), special teams ace, Brian Peters (2 years, $6 million), backup QB Brandon Weeden (1 year, $750K), return specialist Deandre Carter (3 years, $10 million), and the kicker with the most made field goals in the NFL last season, Ka’imi Fairbairn (4 years, $16 million), the team is left with $59.4 million to make a splash in free agency.

I mentioned offensive line and cornerback as the biggest needs earlier, and while that’s true, there are a few other needs as well, like depth at wide receiver and running back, so let’s dive in to who the team should be targeting.

Offensive Line:

• Daryl Williams is arguably the best tackle in this year’s free agent class. He was the highest rated right tackle in 2017 by Pro Football Focus, the 8th highest offensive lineman overall. However, he was injured in the first game of the season this year and spent the year on the injured reserve. That will likely keep him from becoming one of the highest paid tackles in football, but he’ll still come at a steep price for being the most talented. A 4 year, $30 million contract would make him the 5th highest paid right tackle last year, and would be a fair deal with him coming off of his injury.
• The highest paid last season, was Ja’Wuan James. James has been consistently solid over the past four years, but not elite. The reason he was paid so highly was due to the fifth year option of his rookie contract. He comes with some injury history, missing at least half the season in 2 of his 5 pro years, but he would be a welcome addition to the Texans’ line, for slightly less than Williams. My guess is a 4 year, $24 million deal.
• Probably the safest bet when it comes to offensive line free agents this year is Roger Saffold. He helped anchor the interior of the Los Angeles Rams line on their way to the Super Bowl that included a 17 rushing touchdown season from Todd Gurley. He was the 9th highest graded guard according to PFF, but he is going to be 31 by the time the season starts. He should expect a short term deal with high annual values, similar to his former teammate, Andrew Whitworth’s, last deal, 3 years, $30 million, making him the 6th highest paid guard.
• The highest rated free agent offensive lineman, according to PFF, is also coming off a season ending injury. Center, Matt Paradis, was the second rated center in football last season, and could help change the way the offensive line works in Houston. Instead of Deshaun Watson calling out blitzes at the line, Paradis could help ease that burden, freeing him up to spend more of the play clock reading coverages. Even coming off of his injury, he could command $10 million a season. A 4 year, $40 million deal would put him as the 5th highest paid center in football.
• The Texans have enough money to sign some combination of an interior and exterior lineman. While Saffold is the healthier option, I like the idea of signing Paradis, moving current center, Nick Martin, to guard. Due to picking the health risk on the interior, I’ll pick the safer bet at right tackle in James. This still leaves a hole at left tackle, but I’ll get to that. (Remaining cap space: $43.4 million)

Cornerback:

• Sticking with the theme of top players for positions of need for the Texans coming off of major injuries, Ronald Darby by far has the most talent of any corner on the market, but is coming off of a torn acl. He does have the pedigree of being a #1 corner for a Super Bowl winning team, and is only 25 years old. The track record for players coming off of acl tears is much better now than in the past, so it will be interesting to see if someone offers him a long term offer. Most likely he’ll get a one year, prove you’re healthy, deal worth around $11, but it may be worth offering a longer term deal to entice him to sign.
• The drop off in talent for the corner position in free agency is pretty dramatic. There are a couple of slot corners that would make a good addition, but the hope is that last year’s big acquisition, Aaron Colvin, is healthy to man that role. Bryce Callahan would be an intriguing option since he played his high school ball at Cypress Woods and played at Rice in college. If he somehow can be convinced to sign a hometown discount of 4 years, $20 million, then it’d be a great signing. But he won’t.
• If the Texans strike out on Darby, the team will have to rely on the draft to find a true #1 corner, but they can still find depth in Steven Nelson. While it won’t be a flashy pick up, Nelson has gotten better every year he’s been in the league, according to PFF, while also getting an expanded role. He doesn’t have the potential ceiling that Darby does, but his floor is much higher than Shareece Wright, who started at corner for the team last year. Nelson, being near the top of a short list of capable corner free agents, could command a contract around 4 years, $30 million.
• The biggest wild card is, you guessed it, another injury risk. Jason Verrett was a former first round pick in 2011, but only has one healthy season in his career. But in that one season, he proved he could be one of the best corners in football. He is coming off of a torn achilles, so his speed probably won’t be the same as it once was, but his technique should. He probably won’t get offered anything more than a one year, prove it, deal worth $5 million.
• Just like the offensive line, it will be very easy for the Texans to miss out on filling their biggest need, but they have the money to win a bidding war for Darby. In this scenario, where all of my wildest dreams come true (yes, the Texans win the Super Bowl too), we get him for the price I said earlier. (Remaining cap: $32.4 million)

What to do with Jadeveon Clowney:

This is probably what you came here to read. This is the question that everyone has been asking on sports radio since the Texans were eliminated from the playoffs. Clowney is arguably the biggest free agent the team has had since Mario Williams in 2012. After being drafted #1 overall, it took Clowney a few years to start to live up to those lofty expectations, as well as get over some injuries. Now healthy, he’s become one of the best run stoppers in football, and even if he hasn’t quite shown the pass rush abilities that he flashed in college, he’s still had 9 sacks in each of the two years.

Pass rushing is at a premium in today’s NFL, so the team can’t let Clowney walk without some form of value in return. Luckily, they do have the ability to franchise tag him, giving him another year with the team. That franchise tag is worth $18,653,000 if Clowney is designated at a defensive end, or $15,777,000 if he is classified as a linebacker. While signing him to a contract extension would be the most ideal, so they don’t have to deal with the drama of him holding out, there’s a chance that he wants more money than the team (or in this case, me) is willing to pay. He wants a deal similar to what Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald signed last offseason (6 years, $141 million). However the maximum that I would give him is 5 years, $110 million. If he decides to lower his price, then great, he’s locked up for the next five seasons. If he doesn’t, then the team will slap the franchise tag on him (and in this scenario, we’ll give him the $18,653,000 defensive end tag).

If he does end up getting the tag, then the team should immediately start looking for trade suitors before this year’s draft. After seeing how Mack was able to complete the Chicago Bears’ defense after being traded to them, teams may be willing to give up more draft picks hoping for a similar result. A team like the Packers, with two first round picks and on the edge of contention minus a couple pieces on their defense, may be willing to part with their 15th overall pick and a third round pick this season and a second rounder next season (or Josh Jackson).

My rationale behind this thinking is in a couple of seasons, Deshaun Watson will no longer be on his rookie contract and finally be getting paid star quarterback money. When that happens, the team shouldn’t be tied down between giant long term deals between Clowney, JJ Watt, and Deandre Hopkins. There needs to be some flexibility for the future. So if you can get a young player to replace Clowney, like Montez Sweat or Clelin Ferrell, who the team can get in the middle of the first round, for a fraction of the cost, then you give yourself that flexibility.

The last option is to just let him walk and try to sign someone to replace him. There are some cheap pass rush options available, if they want to go this route, or even if they trade him. Granted, the other free agents out there won’t give the same run stopping ability Clowney brings, not even close actually, but with the middle linebackers the Texans have, that isn’t much of a priority. Cameron Wake is on the older side, but he still had 6 sacks last year and averaged over 9 over his last three seasons (2 years, $10 million). Za’Darius Smith kind of came out of nowhere last year, but it was also his first season playing at least 65% of his defense’s snaps, and he made good use of them finishing with 8.5 sacks (3 years, $18 million).

If it were up to me, the idea of trading Clowney seems the most ideal in the long run, but I realize that these next two seasons are the biggest the championship window will be due to Watson’s contract. With that said, Clowney’s experience will allow him to earn his money rather than having to wait for Sweat to adjust to the speed of the NFL. So we’ll say that he accepts the franchise tag tender and then we can go through this whole circus again next offseason. (Remaining cap: $13.2 million)

Remaining holes to plug:

With the remaining cap space, there are a couple of hole left to fill, now that the major areas of need have been filled. The draft will definitely help with this as well, but it will also be used to fill holes like left tackle and corner. Backups are needed at running back, wide receiver, and tight end to help make the offense a little more dynamic. The defense is already pretty deep other than the previously mentioned positions. Here are some remaining players to target for cheap:

• While Le’veon Bell is the biggest free agent running back on the market, even with the headache he comes with, he still is out of the Texans’ budget now. Luckily, the team isn’t on the market for an all-purpose back at the moment, but desperately need a speed back to catch passes out of the backfield to compliment current running backs, Lamar Miller and D’onta Foreman. Corey Grant and Latavious Murray could both fill that role, and both would cost about 2 years, $4 million each.
• Over the past couple of seasons, the offense has been the most explosive when Will Fuller has been healthy to take the top of the defense. Unfortunately, he’s had trouble staying healthy, so the team needs a backup speed threat on the outside. Tyrell Williams would be the best option for that role, but that means he’s also the most expensive. Cordarelle Patterson and Chris Conley are both freak athletes that can add some creativity to the offense. They could go for 3 years, $12 million.
• Because we cut Ryan Griffin at the beginning of this exercise, the team needs another tight end to go with the sophomore duo of Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas. Jesse James is an intriguing option as a good blocker that is capable of some big receiving games when left open. A 3 year, $12 million deal would give the team a versatile group of tight ends that can play inside or outside.
• By adding Grant, Conley, and James, that would help round out the offense to give Watson plenty of options to throw the ball around. (Remaining cap: $3.8 million)

The Draft:

Now that the team is finished with their spending spree, it’s time to focus on April’s draft. Now, I’m making these predictions before the combine, so there’s a lot that can change between now and then. It’s also extremely difficult to project the futures of 20 and 21 year old kids (and now I feel very old for calling a 21 year old a kid). You can also check out my buddy, Tyler Mock’s Texan mock draft here.

• First Round: If the team is able to get a mid first round pick for Clowney, that pick should be used to find his replacement, like I mentioned earlier. But the current 23rd overall pick will be used to find either the left tackle of the future or a shutdown corner. According to The Ringer, there are 5 projected tackles to be drafted in the first round, including deep into the round. However, due to the depth at tackle, you can still find a franchise left tackle in the second round. Most mock drafts only have one star corner falling as far as the Texans’ pick, Deandre Baker. The only knock on Baker is his size, at 5’11”, but he can stick with anyone, and as long as he can cover TY Hilton, then the pick would be worth it.
• Second Round: I mentioned the depth at left tackle might spill over into the second round and that’s what absolutely needs to be addressed here. There’s a couple of ways that can be achieved. Because the team has two second round picks, they can either try to wait, or use both picks to move up into the top few picks of the round. The latter may be the safer pick to get either Dalton Risner or Yondy Cajuste. Both come from spread offenses, so they have a history of protecting quarterbacks that like to move around in the pocket like Deshaun Watson.
• Third Round: So now that the two biggest areas of need are filled, it’s time to build some depth. Similar to when we used the remaining cap space to find players with a specific set of skills that would help the team in a specific area for cheap, that’s what we’re looking to do with the remaining draft picks. A couple of Texas A&M Aggies could be great fits here. Tight end, Jace Sternberger, was the top college receiving tight end last season, and Trayveon Williams could be the third down back the team needs and could pair well with D’onta Foreman in the future after Lamar Miller leaves in free agency after next season.
• Fourth Round: The team does not currently have a fourth round pick after trading for Demaryius Thomas last season. I don’t see them trying to trade into the fourth round either.
• Fifth Round: DaMarkus Lodge is a big bodied wide receiver that has big play potential out of Mississippi. He could fit in well as a back up, behind Will Fuller and learning from Deandre Hopkins. Kendall Sheffield is a corner out of Ohio State that could give depth on the outside of the defense.
• Sixth Round: As we get down deeper in the draft, I’ve watched less and less game footage of available players. So, as a homer pick, Kingsley Keke would be a good fit as a 3-4 defensive lineman backing up Christian Covington and JJ Watt. He’s got great size, and could slide in to play a quick nose tackle with pass rushing ability.
• Seventh Round: Jalen Hurd was a running back at Tennessee for his first three years in college, but transferred to Baylor for his senior year so that he could play wide receiver. He would be a project, as he hasn’t completely transitioned into the role, but it’s the seventh round, anybody they select here would be a project.

There you have it. Thanks for sticking around for this long and eventful offseason, but now as training camp starts, the Houston Texans, on paper, have the talent to compete with any team in the league. The offense will be explosive, and the defense will be great against the run and the pass. Hopefully the team can stay healthy so they can be parading around the city in February 2020.