Philadelphia Phillies Summer Check Up

Philadelphia Phillies

41-36 (2^nd in NL East)

Eye Popping Number

10.4%

The Philadelphia Phillies, just like their NL East rival Atlanta Braves, are trying to put their tanking rebuilding ways behind them. They’re winning a lot of games this season, and playing well above projections. The way that they’re winning is by walking, and walking a lot. They lead the Majors in walk percentage at 10.4%, led by big free agent acquisition, Carlos Santana. Now, just because they are getting all of those free base runners, it doesn’t mean that they’re exactly turning them into runs. They’re 18^th in baseball with a 93 team weighted runs created, 7 percent below average. While they’re still working on their situational hitting, it’s fun to watch a young team with a great eye for the strike zone.

Biggest Surprise

Knowing that their starting rotation needed an ace, the team brought in free agent, Jake Arrieta, during spring training. Little did they know that their ace was already on the roster. Aaron Nola has had some good years in his short MLB career, but he’s finally taking the leap to elite status. Currently, he’s tied as the third most valuable pitcher in baseball with a 4.3 Wins Above Replacement. He’s gotten there with a 2.58 ERA over 101.1 innings pitched and 99 strikeouts. He’s also been one of the best pitchers at limiting home runs, only giving up 6, and ranking 4^th with a .5 home runs per 9 innings pitched, half of what he threw last year. With a career high of 168 innings pitched, it will be interesting to see how the team handles him as he gets near 200 innings and they’re competing for a playoff spot.

Player(s) to Watch

The Phillies wanted to show everyone this offseason that they were done rebuilding by signing Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta to big contracts. While both have been good, and added value to the team this year, they haven’t lived up to their new big pay days. Santana, for instance, is only hitting .222, the lowest mark of his career. He has walked in 17.6% of his plate appearances though, setting the table for the bottom of the order. Arrieta is having an interesting season. He has a decent ERA at 3.54, but his other stats aren’t great. His strikeouts are way down, and his hit and home run percentages aren’t great or terrible. If the Phillies are going to truly make a run at the playoffs, and try and hold the Washington Nationals off in the division, they’re going to need their big moves to start paying off.

What to Watch for at the Deadline

The Phillies need bullpen help in the worst way. Their closer, Hector Neris, has a 5.59 ERA. Three of their four most used relievers after Neris have ERAs of 4.74, 4.37, and 5.57. While there are some younger guys that haven’t been used as much that have some good numbers, they need some veteran help. Joakim Soria (Chicago White Sox), Darren O’Day (Baltimore), and Fernando Rodney (Minnesota) would all be great additions. It will be interesting to see if they can lure Cole Hamels (Texas) back to Philly to add a boost to their starting rotation, even though it isn’t needed as bad. Offensively, they need a right fielder and a shortstop. They could go after Corey Dickerson (Pittsburgh) or Scott Schebler (Cincinnati) to fill their hole in the outfield, and Jose Iglesias (Detroit) would be a good fit at short as they wait for JP Crawford to return from the disabled list.

*All stats as of 6/27 via fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com