Houston Texans 2018 Offseason Plan

The Pro Bowl was yesterday, and we know you didn't watch it and you need to get your football content fix before the Super Bowl this weekend so here’s an offseason plan for the Houston Texans.

The 2017 NFL season was a roller coaster of emotions for Houston Texans fans - if the roller coaster was the Tower of Terror - because it started high and just went down fast. After trading up and drafting Deshaun Watson in the first round of the NFL draft, it appeared the team finally had their franchise quarterback they’ve been searching for since their inception in 2002. It didn’t take long for Watson to prove those opinions true, showing poise beyond his years. After tearing his ACL in a week 8 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the season went downhill quickly, only winning once in the final 9 games. It became obvious that changes needed to be made if they want to compete in 2018 in what could be the most competitive division in football.

The first change the organization took was hiring Brian Gaine to be GM to replace Rick Smith as he stepped down to care for his wife who recently was diagnosed with breast cancer. Gaine was the vice president of player personnel last season for the Buffalo Bills. Gaine and head coach Bill O’Brien were given 5 year contracts (an extension in O’Brien’s case). Gaine’s first action will be to read this blog as I explain what he needs to do in order to put the best possible team on the field in 2018.

A new General Manager’s best friend is lots of draft picks. Well… the Texans don’t have that, but they do have their next best friend, lots of salary cap space. The Texans are starting the offseason with just over $50 million in cap space. That is by far the most cap space the team has had entering an offseason in a long time. Perfect for adding a top free agent or two, or overpaying for a desperately needed offensive lineman. They can find another $23 million with a few swift cuts and/or trades:

*All of the below figures were provided by Spotrac.com, a great site for all of you wannabe GMs out there like me.*

Gain $3.5 million cutting Derek Newton. Newton has been a solid right tackle, something desperately needed on the roster right now, but after rupturing the patellar tendons in both of his knees in the seventh game of the 2016 season he hasn’t seen the field since. If he can come back healthy, and play at 80% of the level he was at before the injury, he would definitely be worth the money. His injury was such a fluke that that isn’t a given at this point.

Gain $7.6 million cutting Brian Cushing (guaranteed $1.2 million). When Zach Cunningham was drafted in the second round of last year’s draft, I thought for sure Cushing would be traded. Possibly getting as high as a second-round pick for him from a linebacker needy team. After serving a 10 game suspension this year for a second failed PED test, the idea of getting that high of a draft pick for Cushing is long gone. Maybe a team would be willing to give up a 6th or 7th round pick, allowing us to add depth in the draft, but either way, the longest tenured defensive player should be on a new team in 2018.

Gain $.15 million cutting CJ Fiedorowicz (or if he retires). This one is a bit tougher decision. There isn’t a ton of money at stake in this move, and Fiedorowicz is a fine tight end lined up across from Ryan Griffin, and a great blocker which is welcomed due to the offensive line struggles, but unfortunately, he can’t stay on the field. After suffering his fourth concussion in the last two years, for his health’s sake I hope he retires.

Gain $4.8 million cutting Jeff Allen (guaranteed $2.5 million). Allen was brought in to replace Brandon Brooks at right guard when he left in free agency two years ago. Now Brooks is playing in the Super Bowl, so I guess he made the right decision not resigning. Allen however, has been a bust, financially speaking. He has been able to stay healthy, unlike most of the offensive line, which does count for something, but he’s been worth closer to $3 million as a swing backup lineman than the $7 million he would make if he’s still on the club.

Gain $6.75 million cutting Kareem Jackson (guaranteed $2.5 million). Jackson has primarily played nickel corner over the past few seasons, and last year he wasn't a very good one. He's currently being paid like a top 20 corner, even though Pro Football Focus rated him as the 95th best corner in the league last year. 

With these moves, that adds up to a total of $22.9 million in savings, providing $75.61 mil in cap space.

*All of the below figures were provided by my brain, a guess based on previous contracts and recent play, I could be way off.*

Re-signing Shane Lechler ($2 million), Eddie Pleasant ($3 million), Greg Mancz ($5 million, he’s a restricted free agent so someone may drive up the price), and Bruce Ellington ($1.5 million) brings the salary cap space back to around $64.11 million.

Now that we have the cap space figured out, what do the Texans need to spend the money on?

Needs:

The offensive line was abysmal last season, and after trading the best lineman in Duane Brown, and three starters hitting free agency it’s time for a complete overhaul.

• Left tackle, right tackle, left guard

After finishing with the second-best pass defense in 2016, the team fell to the ninth worst in the league this season. Though part of that has to do with injuries to pass rushers, Jonathan Joseph is a free agent, and most likely not coming back, so secondary needs a lot of work.

• #1 corner, safety

I mentioned how CJ Fiedorowicz has a hard time staying healthy earlier, well the other tight end on the team, Ryan Griffin, does too. A safety net, other than Deandre Hopkins, for Deshaun Watson is needed.

• Receiving tight end

After Watson got hurt, the Texans won one game the rest of the season. Signing someone to pick up the slack in case that happens again is needed. Hopefully that person can help guide and mentor Watson as well as he adjusts to life in the NFL.

• Someone that’s not Tom Savage

Who to Target:

All of these opinions are based on the idea that none of these players are franchise tagged.

Left Tackle

• Nate Solder has been a mainstay on the New England Patriots’ line protecting Tom Brady’s blindside. He isn’t a superstar, and is entering his age 30 season next year, but he is the best left tackle on the market. Due to that fact, there could be a bidding war for his services, but I think he can be had for around 3 years, $35 million.

Right Tackle

• Seantrel Henderson comes with some character concerns (he served a 10 games suspension for substance abuse this past season), but his floor is higher than the current offensive line’s ceiling. I’d offer him a two year, $10 million, with the second year non-guaranteed in case he gets suspended again there’s an easy out.

Guard

• Andrew Norwell is one of the elite guards in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the #3 guard in the league last season. The third highest paid guard in football makes $11.25 million a year. Norwell will probably get a 4 year, $48 million deal, tying him for the highest paid guard in football.
• Justin Pugh is a lineman with experience as both a tackle and a guard. He may try and sign with a team that wants to use him as a tackle because tackles generally make more money, which the Texans could totally use his services for, however, he is much better as a guard. He’s coming off his rookie contract so he’s going to want a big payday. 5 year, $45 million.
• Matt Slauson is on the older side at 32 years old, and he’s coming off of a season cut short by a torn bicep, but in his career, he’s been a rock-solid lineman for multiple teams. Because of his age and coming off an injury, he could be a cheaper option than the above-mentioned players, and still be just as valuable to protect Watson. He was a bargain last year for the San Diego Chargers at $2.8 million, so he’ll likely fetch something along the same lines looking for a contract this year, 2 years, $5 million.

Corner

• Prince Amukamara was a former first round pick that has been riddled with injuries throughout his career, but when he’s healthy, he’s a true #1 corner. While Trumaine Johnson and Malcom Butler are going to be the hottest corners on the market, but according to Pro Football Focus, Amukamara was a higher rated corner this past season. A 3 year, $27 million contract would put him with other #1 corners, salary wise.
• Vontae Davis has been an elite corner for the majority of his career. He had a rough year two seasons ago, and after a groin injury last season the Indianapolis Colts cut him. I would give him a 1 year, prove it deal worth $7 million, or a 2 year deal with the second year non-guaranteed, essentially giving the team an option.

Safety

• Kenny Vacarro would be the perfect strong safety to play up in run support while Andre Hal plays center field. Vacarro isn’t on the level of some of the other available safeties in this year’s free agent class, but he’s a good fit. The Texans need someone to replace the productivity that Quinten Demps provided before he left in free agency last offseason. He should be on the cheaper side with a 3 years, $13 million contract.
• Lamarcus Joyner is the best safety free agent, and arguably the best non-quarterback free agent in this year’s free agent class. Pro Football Focus rated him as the #3 safety in the NFL last season. If Houston strikes out on some of the other big money free agents above, then they might as well throw out a 5 year, $62 million contract to anchor the back end of the defense, but I would target Vacarro and try and spend that money on the offensive line if possible.

Tight End

• Benjamin Watson has been around a long time, and has caught balls from Tom Brady and Drew Brees. If Fiedorowicz does decide to hang up his cleats, Watson would be the perfect addition to take his spot on a 1 year, $4 million deal.

QB

• Matt Moore has been a career back up, but he’s very good at his role. Hopefully he never has to be used, because that means that Watson got hurt again, but in the off chance that he does, somebody needs to fill in, something Moore is qualified for. A 2 year, $4 million deal would be a great deal for the Texans.

Say the Texans are able to add Solder, Henderson, Norwell, Slauson, Amukamara, Vacarro, Watson and Moore for the prices I proposed. That leaves the team with about $14 million left in cap space. With the money remaining, there are two routes to take here:

1. Go ahead and resign Jadeveon Clowney to a 5 year, $90 million deal that kicks in starting in the 2019 season so we don’t have to deal with any drama next offseason; or
2. Go after either Jarvis Landry or Jimmy Graham with a 4 year, $60 deal to play on the inside of Hopkins and Fuller, giving the Texans one of the more explosive offenses in the league. (The deal can be backloaded so they receive more money at the end of the contract and not all $15 million would be due in the first season.)

Draft:

The draft this year is going to be tricky, because the team doesn’t have a first or second round pick (the Cleveland Browns have both picks). That means the first pick the team has is their third-round pick. The team has had somewhat of a curse when it comes to third-round picks lately as Braxton Miller, Jalen Strong, Louis Nix, Sam Montgomery, Brennan Williams, Devier Posey barely have any contributions to their names. Luckily, depending on the mock draft you look at, there could be a few possible players, like Kevin Tolliver (CB, LSU) and Armani Watts (S, Texas A&M) for instance, that fit needs that went into the college football season with a first round grade but have had their stock fall either due to injury or lesser quality of play. They could be day 1 impact players which is what is needed in the third-round.

Mock drafts will become clearer after the NFL combine, and I only know maybe two offensive line prospects’ names off the top of my head and they’ll both likely go in the first round, so that doesn’t help to know who to target. With two third round picks in the draft, one should be for an offensive lineman and one should be either a corner or safety. 

There you go, the blueprint for the 2018 offseason for the Houston Texans. With a healthy JJ Watt and Deshaun Watson, and these new additions, you can go ahead and book your hotels in Atlanta for next February and start planning the parade now.