2017 NL Preview

Guys… Guys!! Baseball starts back in a week!! Spring Training is coming to a close, and the World Baseball Classic has ended its glorious run, but the Major League Baseball season starts in exactly 7 days. Knowing at this time next week, I’ll be watching some meaningful baseball has me pumped! We were blessed with an amazing season in 2016 capped off by the Chicago Cubs breaking a 108 year old championship drought. 2017 is poised for more of the same, if the WBC is any prediction for what is to come. To take some of the fun out of it, I’m going to give my predictions for how the season will play out that will most likely be terribly wrong, but here goes nothing for the National League.

NL EAST

The Washington Nationals won the NL East last season, and that was with a down year from Bryce Harper. They did so behind the 2nd best ERA in the Majors, and 4th most runs. Scoring a lot while not giving up many runs is usually good strategy across any level of baseball. Their starting pitching is anchored by arguably the best pitcher not named Clayton Kershaw, 2016 Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer (fun fact: he has as many Cy Youngs now as he does no-hitters and different colored eyes). After giving up a king’s ransom worth of prospects for Adam Eaton to sure up center field, the Nationals boast one of the best lineups in baseball 1 through 9. The big question is the bullpen. There are a few guys that have had solid seasons (Shawn Kelley, Blake Treinen, Oliver Perez for example), but they don’t have anyone that has a reputation as a shutdown reliever. If Kelley or Treinen can step into that role, the Nationals will threaten to get over the hump and finally make it to the World Series for the first time in franchise history (and that includes when they were the Expos).

The 2016 New York Mets went into the season with the highest expectations of any starting pitching rotation since the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies. As the season went on, the more pitchers they lost to the disabled list. Because of aces like Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey missing time, rookies Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo showed that they have what it takes to be Major League pitchers as well leaving the Mets with the deepest starting rotation in baseball for the second year in a row (they still finished with the 3rd best ERA in baseball last season). Offensively, they have the same team that they finished the season with. The past two seasons have been the same song for the Mets, it only goes as far as Yoenis Cespedes takes them. With David Wright and Lucas Duda back healthy, that should give the offense a little more production, but I would expect more of the same this year. If Cespedes goes down with an injury, they might have to dig into their young pitching staff and look for a trade. The Mets’ bullpen has a similar story as the Nationals. All Star closer, Jeurys Familia is waiting to hear on a decision about being suspended after a domestic violence charge this offseason. If he is out for a significant amount of time, then the Mets have to find someone to take his spot as a high pressure situation guy.

The Atlanta Braves are my pick this season to make a run at the playoffs a year early after years of basement dwelling. In the second half of last season, they traded for Matt Kemp and called up former #1 overall pick, Dansby Swanson and finished the second half of the season with the best team batting average of any team that doesn’t play half of their games in the Rocky Mountains. The offense led them to a 41-41 record from July through the end of the season. This offseason, they went out and got some veteran leadership for their young squad, trading for Brandon Phillips and signing Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia. Granted, Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran are the only players in their prime, and everyone else is either a few years past it or a few years before they reach it, but the pieces are there to be competitive for a whole season. Plus, the farm system has enough pieces to make a midseason trade if they are in contention for a playoff spot come August.

The Miami Marlins took their biggest roster hit last September when star pitcher, Jose Fernandez, died in a boating accident. It will be interesting see how the team responds this season as I am sure the players will be dedicating this season to him. Unfortunately, the front office was not able to acquire another front line starter to fill his spot in the rotation, leaving them with a rotation of average starters across the board. They spent their money to bolster their bullpen instead, meaning if the starters can get to the 6th inning on any given game, the bullpen should allow them to stay in any game from then on. A strategy that was revolutionized by the 2012 Kansas City Royals. Last season, they finished with the 4th best batting average in baseball, and that was with 2015 batting champ, Dee Gordon, missing 80 games with a suspension. Even though they were able to hit for average, they lacked some pop, finishing with the 4th lowest slugging percentage. Because of that lack of pop, the offense will only go if Giancarlo Stanton is healthy. One of the more premier sluggers in the game today, if he misses significant time with an injury like he has the past few seasons, then the offense as a whole will struggle.

The Philadelphia Phillies are in the middle of their rebuilding stage that they began a few years ago. Players such as Odubell Hererra, Maikel Franco and Vince Velasquez look to build on their success over the past couple of seasons and take the next step toward being a competitive program. Luckily, Philadelphia knows about having to #TrustTheProcess with the 76ers going through the same strategy the past few seasons as well.

NL CENTRAL

The biggest story from the 2016 season was the Chicago Cubs breaking a 108 year old championship drought and winning the World Series. Because the majority of the team is locked up on long term contracts, they are the favorites to win again next season. And why wouldn’t they? They have the league MVP in Kris Bryant, two Cy Young finalists in Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks, the third most runs scored in the Bigs and the best ERA. That’s a good combination for a winning team. They were able to replace players like Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman with players of similar skills in Jon Jay and Wade Davis. Oh yeah, their farm system is still loaded to trade for another super star at the trade deadline if they wish.

The past few years as the season has approached, the St. Louis Cardinals have seemed to be heading for a down year after so many seasons reaching the playoffs, and every year they make the playoffs anyway. This year they seem to have bucked the trend and are projected to make the playoffs anyway. They didn’t make any significant moves to upgrade a pitching staff that finished 12th in the Majors in ERA, but they hope to get bounce back seasons out of Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha. With an offense that put up the second most home runs last season, most in the National League, they should be able to produce enough runs (3rd in the NL last season) to support the pitching even if one of the two aforementioned pitchers doesn’t return to ace status.

After several seasons of mediocrity, the Pittsburgh Pirates finally looked like they were securely in the upper echelon of the National League after 3 straight postseason appearances from 2013-2015. Last season was a step back. Andrew McCutchen usually puts up MVP numbers to lead a steady offense, but last year was worth the same to his team as Royals’ back up catcher Dan Butera or Cubs’ seldom used utility man Matt Szczur. And a pitching staff that is usually lead by ace, Garrit Cole, and closer, Mark Melancon, only saw Cole pitch 116 innings due to injuries, and saw Melancon traded midseason for prospects. This caused the pitching staff to give up the 5th highest batting average in baseball. While the offense can only pray that McCutchen’s 2016 season was a fluke, Cole is coming back healthy, and a quartet of promising youngsters look to get some playing time. Pitchers, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, and first basemen, Josh Bell, made their debuts last season, with Taillon and Bell having solid starts to their careers in the Pirates’ rebuilding year, all of them look to build on their inaugural campaigns to get the club back in the playoffs. The most intriguing player is outfielder, Austin Meadows. A former first round pick looks to make his MLB debut, but his road is blocked by All-Stars, McCutchen and Starling Marte, and former uber prospect Gregorio Polanco. If McCutchen continues to struggle, look for Meadows to get the call to the show and put on a show.

The Cincinnati Reds began their rebuilding project two seasons ago when they traded away Johnny Cueto, and have continued to get prospects in exchange for Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. These moves have left them with a lot of youth all over the roster, and outside of other rebuilding teams of the past, they have held onto a top-5 hitter in Joey Votto. Because of Votto and All-Star, Adam Duvall, the team finished with a  respectable .256 team batting average, 14th in the majors, tied with the World Series champion Cubs. The pitching, was a completely different story. Finishing with the 4th worst ERA in the Majors, and with their best starter, Andrew DeScaflini, beginning the year on the DL with a UCL sprain, it doesn’t look promising.

In contention for the worst record in the league will be the Milwaukee Brewers. After rebuilding trades of Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Tyler Thornburg and Will Smith their farm system has climbed from 9th to 5th according to MLB.com. This means that outside of Ryan Braun, Jonathan Villar and Travis Shaw, there isn’t much MLB talent on the team. While the Reds have productive offense with no pitching, the Brewers are the opposite. Last season, offensively, they finished with the 4th worst batting average and the highest strike out percentage in the league. Their pitching does have a few bright spots. Last season they finished 18th in the league with an average 4.10 team ERA. However the bulk of kept that down were the already mentioned bullpen studs of Jeffress, Thornburg and Smith. Between Opening Day starter, Junior Guerra and bullpen returners, Carlos Torres and Jhan Marinez, they have enough to be average on the mound again this year.

NL WEST

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the NL West four straight seasons and they have a good chance to make that 5 in a row this season. Even with the majority of the starting rotation spending lots of time on the disabled list throughout the season, including the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, who missed half the season for putting the team on his back (aka herniated disc), the team put up the 5th best ERA in baseball at 3.70. The team was lead by a trio of rookies that were poised beyond their years. Rookie of the Year award winner, Corey Seager, Japanese import, Kenta Maeda, and super-teenager, Julio Urias. Between the kids from the stacked farm system and the veterans from the largest payroll in Major League Baseball, they were able to take the Cubs to the brink in the playoffs last season. The only change this season to the roster was shoring up the second base position by acquiring Logan Forsythe. However, even with the lack of big moves this offseason, if the team can stay healthy, mainly the starting rotation, then they are deep enough to make another run in the postseason.

The San Francisco Giants broke their streak of three straight World Series Championships on even numbered years last season, but that doesn’t mean they can’t start a new odd year streak this year. They have a roster that can compete with anyone. They had the 5th best starting rotation ERA in all of baseball, the 4th best batting average in the NL, and arguably the best defense in baseball lead by gold glovers, Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey. The only thing that weighed them down last year was their bullpen. Overall they had the 16th best ERA out of bullpens, not exactly what you’re looking for when you’re contending for a championship. However, in the second half of the season, after the trade deadline, that rose to the 4th best, and their big offseason signing was All-Star closer, Mark Melancon. If the bullpen can make the strides that it should, on paper, then Posey and Crawford can carry the offense and Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto can carry the rotation back to the playoffs.

Every year, there seems to be a team that has struggled for years and jumped to the playoffs what seems randomly; the Pirates in 2013, Royals in 2014, the Astros in 2015, the Indians last season. I think the Colorado Rockies could be that team this season. It’s no secret that playing in Coors Field in Denver helps their offense, as they had the number one offense in baseball for the whole season, but on the road, their numbers range from the 16-22 when looking at batting average, runs and home runs. The reason I think they will make a jump in wins this season is the pitching. Just like their offense gets a boost playing in Denver, the pitching is at a disadvantage, unless you can find a way to neutralize that disadvantage. In this case you can neutralize it by 1) putting the ball on the ground for your gold glove infielders, Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu, which they did in the second half of last season by leading the league in the second half of last season or 2) not letting the other team hit the ball at all, which after adding reliever Greg Holland and letting flamethrower, Jon Gray, get a full season under his belt, looks to help add to their strikeout totals from last season.

You would be hard pressed to find a team that had a bigger offseason before the 2016 season than the Arizona Diamondbacks, and that strategy backfired tremendously. After signing away Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke from the rival Dodgers, and trading for All-Star, Shelby Miller, the pitching staff ended the year with the worst ERA in baseball at 5.19. Not exactly the expectation after shelling out over $200 million for Greinke and trading away #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson for Miller. Offensively, things weren’t as bad as they finished with the 8th best batting average in baseball, even with a down year from Paul Goldschmidt and losing leadoff man, AJ Pollack, in Spring Training. With Goldschmidt returning to form, and getting Pollack healthy, the offense should only improve. After acquisitions of Taijuan Walker and Fernando Rodney, and an inevitable bounce back from Greinke, the pitching staff is destined to improve from last season, of course, I was saying the exact same thing before last season.

The San Diego Padres are in full rebuild mode. They finished last in batting average last year and had the 8th worst ERA. After signing All-Star, Wil Myers to a 6 year extension during the offseason, he looks to be in their long term plans, which leaves Yangervis Solarte and various relievers as their main trade bait that they will look to unload for prospects throughout the season.

AWARD PREDICTIONS

MVP:

Looking for a repeat of last year’s MVP win is the Cubs’ Kris Bryant. He lead the NL in Wins Above Replacement last season with 7.7 (meaning, if you put a replacement level player in Bryant’s position, the Cubs lose 7.7 more games than they did). Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is a good measure of who the most valuable player is because that is exactly what it measures. Bryant has all of the tools to be a repeat MVP: he’s versatile (played more than 5 games at 4 different positions last season), he hits for average and power (.292/.385/.554 batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage slash line), and he plays for a  winning team, which somehow became the leading qualifier for the MVP award in recent years.

Dark Horse: I discussed earlier how I think that the Colorado Rockies are going to be this year’s playoff shocker, and Nolan Arenado is one of the main reasons why. In MLB history, three players have had consecutive 40+ home run, 130+ RBI seasons, Arenado, and Hall of Famers, Chuck Kline and Jimmie Foxx. Oh, and he’s won a Gold Glove for his play at third base his first four seasons in the Bigs.

Cy Young:

There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. If he hadn’t spent so much time out with an injury last season, he would have easily won the Cy Young with his 1.69 ERA, .725 WHIP, and what would have been an MLB record, .7 walks per nine innings. It was ridiculous, and that’s really the only word I have to describe it.

Dark Horse: Of all of the pitchers in New York’s hyped up rotation last season, Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon were the only ones to stay healthy. While I would love Colon to win the Cy Young in his age 43 season, he would definitely be a dark horse pick, my choice here is Syndergaard. He finished 4th in strikeouts per 9 innings, 9th in overall strikeouts, and 3rd in ERA last season. And for you analytic nerds like me, he finished with the best FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, it measures the three true outcomes a pitcher can control, home runs, walks, and strikeouts). So maybe he’s not truly a dark horse, but he’s not Kershaw, so he’s a dark horse in my book.

Rookie of the Year:

Former #1 overall pick and #1 overall prospect, Dansby Swanson, made his debut last season to the tune of .302/.361/.442 slash line. I’m predicting a similar pattern in his stats that former rookie of the years that were shortstops had like Corey Seager and Carlos Correa.

Dark Horse: Tyler Glasnow struggled a little bit in his first action in The Show last season, but had dominated the minor leagues since being drafted. If he can focus all of talent that he has like fellow Pirate James Taillon, he should be able to put up some solid numbers this season.

NL Pennant Winner: While it is really difficult to pick against the Cubs and their wealth of talent, I think the Nationals will finally win a couple of playoff series to make it to the World Series this year. Behind a bounce back season from Harper, and Scherzer leading the rotation, and the midseason trade for closer, David Robertson, they will finally get the monkey off their back.

Thanks for reading! Come back next week to see my predictions for the American League!