2016 MLB Awards Predictions
The 2016 baseball regular season is over, and just like every season, it was awesome. None of the wild card positions were locked up until the last games of the season, meaning even though it’s a long season, all 162 games were needed for the Blue Jays, Orioles, Giants and Mets to get into the playoffs. Not only were the wild card races crazy, but so are the award races, with many of them up for grabs. If you’re reading this, you likely have read someone’s article on who they think should get each award, and this probably won’t veer any differently than their opinions, but I hope to give a little more insight on some players that they might not have mentioned. Or maybe you really don’t care about baseball and you’re reading to boost my ego, in which case, thank you very much.
AL MVP
Who could win: Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, David Ortiz, Mike Trout
Who will win: Betts
Here’s the deal… Mike Trout is the best hitter in baseball and it’s laughable how far the next tier of players are. He lead all of baseball in WAR at 10.6. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, meaning if you put your average back up center fielder and put him on the Angels for 162 games, they lose 10.6 more games than they already did, which is bad news for Angels fans. It is literally the definition of how valuable you are to your team. And Trout has the highest WAR this season, as he did last season (only AL this year though) and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that. However, the rest of the Angels are hot garbage and only won 74 games and finished no where near the playoffs so he won’t win the award for the fourth time in his five years of being the best baseball player on the planet because the award is essentially the most valuable player for a playoff team. /rant over
Josh Donaldson is the defending MVP and he put himself right back in the discussion by increasing his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts. Other than that, his numbers decreased from last year, but he still racked up 7.4 WAR, good for 4th in the AL.
Jose Altuve had the MVP all but locked up in late August when he was hitting .366 and trending upward while the Astros were doing the same, closing in on the Rangers for the AL West #1 spot. Just to show how valuable he was to the team, he decided to drop his batting average 28 points as the Astros struggled as the season came to a close and missed out on a playoff spot. That strategy probably won’t win over many voters. Altuve did have the best overall season of his young career this year leading the majors in hits, and the AL in batting average, while adding some power to his game with a career high 24 home runs (he’s 5’6” so that’s impressive).
The Boston Red Sox had the best offense in baseball this year, and Mookie Betts and David Ortiz led the way. Ortiz finished the season hitting .315/.401/.620 (batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage) with 38 home runs and 127 RBIs. Oh, I forgot to mention he’s 40 and retiring at the end of the playoffs. He’s the oldest player to ever hit 35 home runs. What he did in his swan song was phenomenal. However he only has 5.1 WAR because he only DH’s and doesn’t play defense, and no player has ever won an MVP being a full time DH. I can see him getting sentimental votes due to this being his last season though.
The reason Ortiz has so many RBI’s this year is because Mookie Betts is always on base for him to drive him home. Betts finished second in baseball in runs (122) and WAR (9.6), both behind Trout. His WAR makes him the most valuable player on a playoff team which is why I think he’ll end up getting the award. Don’t get me wrong, he had a terrific season, and definitely helped carry his team to the playoffs, so he is worthy of the award, I just think Trout is more worthy.
NL MVP
Who could win: Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Daniel Murphy, Joey Votto
Who will win: Bryant
Daniel Murphy had the postseason of all postseasons last year hitting .529 in the NLCS and 7 home runs overall. He rode that momentum to the tune of .347/.390/.595 with 25 home runs and 104 RBIs, all career highs. With Bryce Harper having a down year, Murphy was able to lead the National’s offense into the postseason. If there was an out-of-nowhere winner, Murphy would be it.
After the first half of the season, people were starting to murmur about if Joey Votto’s career were headed downhill. Then he decided to put up second half numbers that were historic. After the all star break he hit .408/.490/.668. That .490 on base percentage means he just about got on base every other plate appearance, and that’s not for a week or a month, he did it for 3 months. Similar to Trout, the team he plays on was closer to having the worst record in baseball than making the playoffs. Overall, his numbers ended up being .326/.434/.550 with 29 home runs and 97 RBIs. Usually MVP like numbers.
If there is an underrated star in baseball right now, it’s Nolan Arenado. This season he became the third player in MLB history to post back to back 40 home run, 130 RBI seasons. The other two, Chuck Klein and Jimmie Foxx are in the Hall of Fame. Oh, and Arenado is arguably the best defensive third basemen in baseball (really a toss up between him and Manny Machado). He finished second in the NL with a 6.5 WAR which seems low, but that factors in the fact that he plays at Coors Field in Denver. I don’t care where he plays though, he’s a guy you want to keep an eye on.
Using both the above arguments for Mike Trout and Mookie Betts to win the MVP, Kris Bryant wins the NL MVP because he has the highest WAR in the NL by a wide margin (7.7 compared to 6.5) and the Cubs made the playoffs. He’s simply the best player on baseball’s best team. He not only hit the cover off the ball, but he played solid defense across 5 positions throughout the year.
AL Rookie of the Year
Who could win: Chris Devinski, Michael Fulmer, Gary Sanchez
Who will win: Fulmer
Gary Sanchez has had arguably the best start to any MLB career for a hitter in the history of baseball. Unfortunately for the sake of his Rookie of the Year argument, he got called up on August 4th and only got two months of playing time compared to full seasons for Fulmer and Devinski. The fact that Sanchez is in the discussion and only played two months is incredible. He is the fastest player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs. He finished with a wRC+ (weighted runs created plus, an analytic term that more or less tells you how good of an offensive season you had. 100 is average) of 171, meaning he hit 71% better than the average hitter. That would have been tops in the bigs if he qualified.
Devinski is only in this conversation because he had a very good season, but unlike Sanchez didn’t grab major headlines, and unlike Fulmer, came out of the bullpen rather than starting. He finished with a 2.91 ERA spanning 108.1 innings (a lot for a relief pitcher) good for 2.8 WAR. He was a crucial part of the Astros bullpen due to starting pitching struggles all year to bridge a multiple inning gap from the starters to Will Harris and Ken Giles. He had a solid season, especially for a rookie, and should be in the discussion even if he doesn’t win.
NL Rookie of the Year
Who could win: Aledmys Diaz, Henry Rowengartner, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Trea Turner
Who will win: Seager
Going into the season, Seager was the only player on anyone’s radar for this award. He was a September call up late last season and dominated from the beginning. One day into the season however, Trevor Story decided he had his own prediction, and hit two home runs the first game of the season. Like Sanchez, he obliterated baseballs to begin his career. In fact, he led the league in home runs, with 27, when he was injured on August 1st and missed the rest of the season. He was on pace for over 40 home runs and shattering the record for home runs by a rookie shortstop (30). But alas… his injury will likely keep him from winning the award.
The battle for the award then turns to three other solid rookie shortstops (last year was the AL’s year of the rookie shortstop with Correa and Fransisco Lindor, now it’s the NL’s turn). Diaz came out of nowhere to become an allstar by midseason after an injury to Jhonny Peralta shifted him into the starting position at the start of the season. He finished the season with a .300 batting average, 17 home runs, and 3.6 WAR. He missed quite a bit of time on the DL and played pretty bad defense compared to Seager and Turner which equates to the lower WAR.
Turner went from uber shortstop prospect to super utility man for the NL East winning Nationals. He hit .342 over 324 plate appearances while playing shortstop, second base and center field. He also racked up 33 stolen bases, ranking 5th in the NL despite a little over half of the plate appearances of the people in front of him. While Turner had a fantastic season, it was more of a fantastic half-season, which will likely give the award to Seager.
Corey Seager got a jump on the race for Rookie of the Year after hitting .337 in 113 plate appearances in 2015. For his encore performance, he forced possible Hall of Famer Jimmy Rollins out of a job in Spring Training. Then he hit .308/.365/.512 in 687 at bats with 26 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 105 runs. He anchored the Dodgers line up all season into the playoffs as many of their other starters either struggled or spent time on the DL.
AL Cy Young
Who could win: Zach Britton, Corey Kluber, Rick Porcello, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander
Who will win: Verlander
This is up in the air. There wasn’t a single starting pitcher who had an ERA under 3.00. There was also the best season thrown by a relief pitcher, well, ever. So there likely will not be a unanimous winner this year. If I had a vote, it would go to Britton. He gave up 4 earned runs all season, and only 1 since May 5th. (!!) Over 67 innings, that equates to a 0.54 ERA, the lowest for any reliever in the history of baseball. To put it nicely, the Orioles had a very bad starting rotation this year, but their bullpen was lights out, and Britton was the key to it all, which is why they are in the postseason this year. He went 47-47 in save opportunities, leading the MLB. Eric Gagne was the last relief pitcher to win the award back in 2003.
Chris Sale was his usual self this year, and outside of a fiasco where he cut up his jersey because he didn’t like them right before a start, it was a pretty quiet season because the White Sox just didn’t play well after May. He went 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA while striking out 233 hitters, second in the AL. It’s crazy to think that a guy with a 3.34 ERA is even in the conversation to win the Cy Young, but it was the year of the hitters as an MLB record 111 players hit 20 home runs (there were 64 last year).
Prior to the 2015 season, the Red Sox gave Rick Porcello a huge contract extension after acquiring him in a trade and he rewarded them with a 4.92 ERA in 172 innings. Realizing he wasn’t the ace they thought he was, the Red Sox dished out a bigger contract to David Price this offseason. Price struggled to live up to his contract this season, but Porcello began to live up to his. He lead the Majors with 22 wins and a solid 3.15 ERA over 223 innings, good for a 5.0 WAR. Wins are a slightly overrated stat, especially when you have the best offense in baseball like the Red Sox do, but Porcello definitely has pitched himself into the competition.
Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander had WARs of 6.5 and 6.6 respectively, meaning they were both equally important to their teams. Across the board, their numbers are very similar. The thing that pushes Verlander over Kluber for me is 1) he lead the AL in strikeouts with 254, 27 more than Kluber. 2) Kluber got 5.16 runs of support on average in his starts, 6th in the AL compared to Verlander getting 3.97 runs of support, 30th in the AL. Remember when I said that wins are a slightly overrated stat? That’s why. Kluber finished the year with 2 more wins than Verlander because his offense helped him out.
NL Cy Young
Who could win: Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez, Kyle Hendricks, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer
Who will win: Scherzer
Remember what I said about Mike Trout? About him being in a tier above everyone else? Clayton Kershaw is that way with pitchers. He was on pace to set a record for strikeout / walk ratio by a wide margin before he went down with a back injury from carrying the pitching staff. He got put on the 60 day DL, which is usually used for players that are out for the season, and came back and pitched just as good if not better than before the injury. That injury will likely keep him from winning the award. He only threw 11 walks in 149 innings. Ridiculous.
Kyle Hendricks isn’t a household name, and he might be the Cubs’ third or fourth starter when the playoffs roll around, but the dude had a career year, for anyone, except maybe Kershaw. He lead the Majors with a 2.13 ERA and had a .98 WHIP (walks + hits / innings pitched). He ‘only’ had 170 strikouts which will keep him from winning the award because the people that hand it out like the sexy stats like strikeouts. But make no doubt about it, Hendricks was as dominant as any pitcher on any given day this year.
Madison Bumgarner was more of the same of his past 4 seasons, sub 3.00 ERA, 200+ strikeouts. But this year he set career highs in strikeouts, 251, and ERA, 2.74. Those are usually Cy Young winning numbers, but the other guys on this list had numbers just as good with less run support... Which is Bumgarner’s own fault for being the best hitting pitcher in baseball.
Max Scherzer has the most intimidating eyes in baseball, as well as one of the most intimidating fastball / slider combos. He lead all of baseball with 284 strikeouts, 228.1 innings, and 6.2 WAR. He also had a sub 3.00 ERA at 2.98. Overall just a great season, and the numbers say he should get the award.
In the saddest part of the season, on September 25th, Jose Fernandez passed away during a boating accident. It shook the whole baseball community as he was one of the game’s brightest, young stars. He had 253 strikeouts this year, second in the NL in about 45 fewer innings than both Max Scherzer and Bumgarner. He lead the NL in Fielding Independent Pitching at 2.30. It will be interesting if they give him the award, posthumously, as I haven’t seen or heard anything about anything like that happening in sports, and can only recall Heath Ledger winning Best Supporting Actor after his untimely death in 2009.
In the saddest part of the season, on September 25th, Jose Fernandez passed away during a boating accident. It shook the whole baseball community as he was one of the game’s brightest, young stars. He had 253 strikeouts this year, second in the NL in about 45 fewer innings than both Max Scherzer and Bumgarner. He lead the NL in Fielding Independent Pitching at 2.30. It will be interesting if they give him the award, posthumously, as I haven’t seen or heard anything about anything like that happening in sports, and can only recall Heath Ledger winning Best Supporting Actor after his untimely death in 2009.
Biggest Winners
Vin Scully has been the best on air talent for baseball broadcasting for the last 67 years. He finally called it quits on Sunday after the Dodger’s final regular season game. The Dodgers made sure he went out like a king.
I already talked about David Ortiz’s season earlier, but I honestly can’t think of someone in their 40s that has had an offensive season like Ortiz had (Nolan Ryan definitely kept pumping 100 mile per hour fastballs well into his 40s). The Red Sox have already mentioned that they will retire his number 34 next season. As long as Edgar Martinez doesn’t get inducted into the Hall of Fame in the next 5 years, Ortiz will be the first full time DH to be inducted.
The Texas Rangers finished the season with the best record in the American League. These are the run differentials (runs scored - runs allowed) of all division winners: +151, +252, +87, +184, +101, +8. The +8, yeah that's the Rangers. How? Well it's a mix of different things, but they went 36-11 in one run games this season. A record for wins in one run games. Call it luck, call it grit, call it not giving up, call it whatever you want, all I know is I wouldn’t want to play them in the playoffs because no lead is safe (I would know, the Astros can’t hold onto one against them).
Baseball. Baseball was the big winner this season. I mentioned the high powered offenses, which is always entertaining. I mentioned the playoff races, also entertaining. But the biggest reason baseball won was after the death of Fernandez, the whole sport came together as a community to mourn the loss of one of the games biggest stars. Watching teams put up Fernandez #16 jerseys up in their dugouts, the whole Marlins team wearing #16 the day after and winning by putting 16 runners on base, Dee Gordon hitting his only home run of the year for his teammate, his friend, his brother, all of it was just awesome. My allergies are acting up just thinking about it. Baseball is the greatest sport on this planet and you will never sway my opinion.
— MLB (@MLB) September 26, 2016
Biggest Losers
In Spring Training, Sports Illustrated predicted the Houston Astros to win the World Series this year. After surpassing expectations and taking the Royals to the brink in the playoffs last season, that wasn’t a terrible prediction… until it was. The Astros got off to a miserable 9-19 start that they almost dug out of except they closed the season almost as bad as they started it, and missed the post season.
I mentioned Mike Trout and Joey Votto earlier about having MVP caliber seasons but not playing on MVP caliber teams. But they both make millions of dollars so I guess it's not all bad.
The Minnesota Twins were literally the biggest losers. They lost 103 games. The only team to lose 100 games this year. Congrats on the #1 pick next summer!
Here’s to a great postseason!
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