How to Fix the Texans' Offense
The 2015 season was an eventful one for the Houston Texans to say the least. Expectations were low considering the offense seemed to be in shambles. No one really knew who the quarterback would be, Arian Foster was hurt and did not have a time table on his return, and nobody knew what to expect from the wide receiving corp after losing Andre Johnson (could Deandre Hopkins carry the load all by himself?). The beginning of the season seemed to match those expectations after a 2-5 start with blowout losses to Atlanta and Miami. Then the defense came alive and carried the team to a 7-2 finish, an AFC South Championship and a playoff spot. In fact, for the first time ever, all three major sports teams made the playoffs in the same year. That high feeling was quickly shattered in yesterday's 30-0 demolishing by the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild card round. It became very apparent that the Texans would never compete amongst the upper echelon of NFL teams without a solid quarterback, regardless of how great JJ Watt makes the defense. This off season should focus on bringing in someone who can bring the offense to a level comparable to the defense for the next three or four years before Watt and Hopkins' prime have ended.
The Texans should go into free agency / the draft with around $30 million in cap space. Two main cogs of the offensive line are set to hit free agency in center, Ben Jones, and guard, Brandon Brooks, who need to be resigned. I'm assuming that they will get contracts similar to what tackle, Derek Newton got last year (5 year, $26.5 million), that's about $10 knocked off right there on the high end, hopefully they can re-sign for less. Outside of that, the only players that really contributed are Jared Crick and John Simon on the defensive side of the ball. If those two are retained, the two spots that need to be looked at most are running back and quarterback in order to improve the team.
I'm going to start with fixing the ground game. I think it is an easier fix, but also will have the front office taking a lot of time thinking about. It is an easy fix because there are an abundance of NFL caliber running backs in this year's draft. With the 21st or 22nd pick in this year's draft, they could go with Ezekiel Elliot or Derrick Henry or wait until the second round to nab Devontae Booker or Alex Collins, among other options. Either way, a running back should be taken in one of the first two rounds. Here's why: Arian Foster can't seem to stay on the field. This is also why the front office will have some thinking to do. They can keep Foster, one of the best running back in the game when healthy, and have him split carries with whoever they draft, or they can cut him and gain an extra $6.5 million in this offseason's cap space. It is a difficult decision to make, and I think a running back stable of say Elliot, Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes would work well, having Foster for 40% of those snaps would make it an excellent group.
Now here is the position that will either win a Super Bowl for the Texans, or have them stay in mediocrity for years. If you have a good quarterback, you will have a good football team. If you have a great quarterback, you will have a great football team. Somehow, the Texans got a very mediocre quarterback and ended up with a good football team. I think that shows how good the team can be if they indeed had a good qb. There are three ways of improving the position: trade, free agency and the draft. I will look at all three options to decide which is the best one to improve the team as a whole. Hoyer will most likely need to be cut in any case because, while he would be a great backup, his $5 million price tag would make him one of the higher paid back ups and the guaranteed portion of his contract has already been paid, so it's free to cut him.
TRADE:
The quarterbacks that are rumored to be on the trading block right now are Collin Kaepernick, Johnny Manziel, and Matthew Stafford. Those are all three interesting options. Bill O'Brien will have a primarily running qb after pigs fly, so Manziel and Kaepernick are ruled out regardless of if you think they're NFL caliber quarterbacks. Stafford is a more plausible choice. He is a pocket guy with a rocket arm, just like O'Brien likes. He also has shown success throughout the years with a bad o-line, no running game, and throwing to one primary receiver (Calvin Johnson). The only problems are his $22 million cap hit, which is more than would likely be available, as well as the draft picks they would give up that would be used to build depth. So between those three options, trading for a quarterback doesn't appear to be the best route.
FREE AGENCY:
The top quarterbacks that are currently set to hit free agency this year are Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Schaub (jk lol). This is where I bet the Texans find their next qb. Fitzpatrick performed admirably last season for them, and became one of the top passers this season after trimming his beard, but he isn't someone who can be handed the keys for the next three or four years. Bradford isn't the same qb he was a few years ago in St. Louis after several knee surgeries, so he's out too. That leaves Osweiler and Cousins. Osweiler performed very well this year when Peyton Manning went down with well, no longer being Peyton Manning. He threw for almost 2,000 yards while playing about half of the games this season. He was turnover prone, however, with at least one turnover each game. That's the same reason Texans fans want Hoyer out of town. Cousins is a different story though. After finally taking the starting job fully from Robert Griffin III, he went on to lead the NFL in completion percentage, and his team to a playoff spot. Granted, the Redskins play in the NFC East, the worst division in football this year (the AFC South is next on that list), but the Redskins' defense is much worse than the Texans' (30th compared to 3rd in yards per game). I think Cousins would be the best option for the present and immediate future while they could draft a qb in a couple of years to groom under him for the eventual future. I'm sure both teams will push hard to resign their quarterbacks, and they will likely demand contracts that get them around $17ish million a year. If somehow the Texans can find that in their budget, I think it would be worth it to get Cousins while he's hot and entering his prime.
DRAFT:
This is where everyone wants the Texans to find a quarterback. They want someone who can lead the team to championships for years to come, while still being cheap on their rookie deals. That is a great idea in theory, but everyone wants an Andrew Luck, someone who can come in and win right away, when those only come every 5 years or so. If the Texans take someone within the first two rounds, I would assume they want him to run the show right away, and I don't see anyone in this years draft that can do that effectively.
[Side Rant] I don't trust a quarterback to win in the pros unless they won in college. I could care less if "they can really spin it," or if "they carry themselves well," winners win, and if I'm Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien I want to win. Example: Tom Brady went 20-5 in college and was a 6th round pick, now 172-51 in the regular season and 4 Super Bowl rings. My point is, they shouldn't draft someone for the sake of drafting someone. Every year, I'm confused when a guy gets drafted early because he did well in the combine where there's no pass rush or defenders.
[Back on Topic] Here are the top quarterbacks in this years draft: Jared Goff, Connor Cook, Paxton Lynch, Carson Wentz and Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg seems to be most likely taken by O'Brien since he played under him as a freshman at Penn State. While he has lots of potential (highlighted by being the number one pocket passer coming out of high school), he never won more than 7 games in a season and his stats have regressed every year since his freshman year. I don't think the potential outweighs the ability for him to win in the NFL now, which is something I would expect him to do if he is a first or second round draft pick.
Of that qb's in this year's draft, I like Connor Cook the best. Since becoming the starter at Michigan State in 2013, he has lost only 4 games. He knows how to win. He did suffer a shoulder injury this season, and he didn't seem quite healed when he tried to take on Alabama last week. If he does become healthy, he could have a shot at being the franchise quarterback the Texans have been since becoming a franchise in 2002. He takes care of the ball, and knows how to stay within himself when a running game and defense can win a game... which is what the Texans are built upon. Some people call these types of qb's "game managers," but I call them qb's that know how to win, and Alex Smith wants to know how the rest of the playoffs look from the couch.
The trio of Goff, Lynch and Wentz are the only others that likely could be taken in the first two rounds. Goff is scheduled to go in the top five, and for good reason. Every now and then, there is someone who bucks the trend of not winning a ton in college to win in the pros, and Goff could be one of those guys because he knows how to quarterback as evidenced by setting the Pac12 touchdown record this year, but he will be drafted well before the Texans are on the clock. Lynch and Wentz are two guys that have won in college, but not on a power five schedule, and to be honest, I haven't seen play much (or at all). I think they would be perfect candidates to draft if there was someone like Brady or Manning they could learn the pro game from for a year before starting, but maybe not Brian Hoyer. There's a lot of risk to drafting them just based of the competition they have faced, but both could be starting quarterbacks at some point in their career.
I haven't spent a ton of time watching film on any of the quarterbacks that I've named in this, so this is all purely on stats, and what I've seen in the past with other quarterbacks. What I do know is that the Texans wasted the career of Andre Johnson by not getting one of the best receivers in NFL history, and one of the best all around guys in the NFL, a championship, and I don't want them to do the same with JJ Watt, so they need to get this figured out quick. I think Kirk Cousins is the best option to take advantage of the prime of Watt and Hopkins before older guys on the defense like Jonathan Joseph and Vince Wilfork start regressing talent-wise. Connor Cook and Brock Osweiler could also be possibilities, but I don't think they can get us over the hump as a first round playoff team year in and year out. This team is built on defense, and a solid running game and a quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over will get this team over the hump.
The Texans should go into free agency / the draft with around $30 million in cap space. Two main cogs of the offensive line are set to hit free agency in center, Ben Jones, and guard, Brandon Brooks, who need to be resigned. I'm assuming that they will get contracts similar to what tackle, Derek Newton got last year (5 year, $26.5 million), that's about $10 knocked off right there on the high end, hopefully they can re-sign for less. Outside of that, the only players that really contributed are Jared Crick and John Simon on the defensive side of the ball. If those two are retained, the two spots that need to be looked at most are running back and quarterback in order to improve the team.
I'm going to start with fixing the ground game. I think it is an easier fix, but also will have the front office taking a lot of time thinking about. It is an easy fix because there are an abundance of NFL caliber running backs in this year's draft. With the 21st or 22nd pick in this year's draft, they could go with Ezekiel Elliot or Derrick Henry or wait until the second round to nab Devontae Booker or Alex Collins, among other options. Either way, a running back should be taken in one of the first two rounds. Here's why: Arian Foster can't seem to stay on the field. This is also why the front office will have some thinking to do. They can keep Foster, one of the best running back in the game when healthy, and have him split carries with whoever they draft, or they can cut him and gain an extra $6.5 million in this offseason's cap space. It is a difficult decision to make, and I think a running back stable of say Elliot, Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes would work well, having Foster for 40% of those snaps would make it an excellent group.
Now here is the position that will either win a Super Bowl for the Texans, or have them stay in mediocrity for years. If you have a good quarterback, you will have a good football team. If you have a great quarterback, you will have a great football team. Somehow, the Texans got a very mediocre quarterback and ended up with a good football team. I think that shows how good the team can be if they indeed had a good qb. There are three ways of improving the position: trade, free agency and the draft. I will look at all three options to decide which is the best one to improve the team as a whole. Hoyer will most likely need to be cut in any case because, while he would be a great backup, his $5 million price tag would make him one of the higher paid back ups and the guaranteed portion of his contract has already been paid, so it's free to cut him.
TRADE:
The quarterbacks that are rumored to be on the trading block right now are Collin Kaepernick, Johnny Manziel, and Matthew Stafford. Those are all three interesting options. Bill O'Brien will have a primarily running qb after pigs fly, so Manziel and Kaepernick are ruled out regardless of if you think they're NFL caliber quarterbacks. Stafford is a more plausible choice. He is a pocket guy with a rocket arm, just like O'Brien likes. He also has shown success throughout the years with a bad o-line, no running game, and throwing to one primary receiver (Calvin Johnson). The only problems are his $22 million cap hit, which is more than would likely be available, as well as the draft picks they would give up that would be used to build depth. So between those three options, trading for a quarterback doesn't appear to be the best route.
FREE AGENCY:
The top quarterbacks that are currently set to hit free agency this year are Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Schaub (jk lol). This is where I bet the Texans find their next qb. Fitzpatrick performed admirably last season for them, and became one of the top passers this season after trimming his beard, but he isn't someone who can be handed the keys for the next three or four years. Bradford isn't the same qb he was a few years ago in St. Louis after several knee surgeries, so he's out too. That leaves Osweiler and Cousins. Osweiler performed very well this year when Peyton Manning went down with well, no longer being Peyton Manning. He threw for almost 2,000 yards while playing about half of the games this season. He was turnover prone, however, with at least one turnover each game. That's the same reason Texans fans want Hoyer out of town. Cousins is a different story though. After finally taking the starting job fully from Robert Griffin III, he went on to lead the NFL in completion percentage, and his team to a playoff spot. Granted, the Redskins play in the NFC East, the worst division in football this year (the AFC South is next on that list), but the Redskins' defense is much worse than the Texans' (30th compared to 3rd in yards per game). I think Cousins would be the best option for the present and immediate future while they could draft a qb in a couple of years to groom under him for the eventual future. I'm sure both teams will push hard to resign their quarterbacks, and they will likely demand contracts that get them around $17ish million a year. If somehow the Texans can find that in their budget, I think it would be worth it to get Cousins while he's hot and entering his prime.
Yes, Kirk, I would like you to be the QB for the Texans.
DRAFT:
This is where everyone wants the Texans to find a quarterback. They want someone who can lead the team to championships for years to come, while still being cheap on their rookie deals. That is a great idea in theory, but everyone wants an Andrew Luck, someone who can come in and win right away, when those only come every 5 years or so. If the Texans take someone within the first two rounds, I would assume they want him to run the show right away, and I don't see anyone in this years draft that can do that effectively.
[Side Rant] I don't trust a quarterback to win in the pros unless they won in college. I could care less if "they can really spin it," or if "they carry themselves well," winners win, and if I'm Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien I want to win. Example: Tom Brady went 20-5 in college and was a 6th round pick, now 172-51 in the regular season and 4 Super Bowl rings. My point is, they shouldn't draft someone for the sake of drafting someone. Every year, I'm confused when a guy gets drafted early because he did well in the combine where there's no pass rush or defenders.
[Back on Topic] Here are the top quarterbacks in this years draft: Jared Goff, Connor Cook, Paxton Lynch, Carson Wentz and Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg seems to be most likely taken by O'Brien since he played under him as a freshman at Penn State. While he has lots of potential (highlighted by being the number one pocket passer coming out of high school), he never won more than 7 games in a season and his stats have regressed every year since his freshman year. I don't think the potential outweighs the ability for him to win in the NFL now, which is something I would expect him to do if he is a first or second round draft pick.
Of that qb's in this year's draft, I like Connor Cook the best. Since becoming the starter at Michigan State in 2013, he has lost only 4 games. He knows how to win. He did suffer a shoulder injury this season, and he didn't seem quite healed when he tried to take on Alabama last week. If he does become healthy, he could have a shot at being the franchise quarterback the Texans have been since becoming a franchise in 2002. He takes care of the ball, and knows how to stay within himself when a running game and defense can win a game... which is what the Texans are built upon. Some people call these types of qb's "game managers," but I call them qb's that know how to win, and Alex Smith wants to know how the rest of the playoffs look from the couch.
The trio of Goff, Lynch and Wentz are the only others that likely could be taken in the first two rounds. Goff is scheduled to go in the top five, and for good reason. Every now and then, there is someone who bucks the trend of not winning a ton in college to win in the pros, and Goff could be one of those guys because he knows how to quarterback as evidenced by setting the Pac12 touchdown record this year, but he will be drafted well before the Texans are on the clock. Lynch and Wentz are two guys that have won in college, but not on a power five schedule, and to be honest, I haven't seen play much (or at all). I think they would be perfect candidates to draft if there was someone like Brady or Manning they could learn the pro game from for a year before starting, but maybe not Brian Hoyer. There's a lot of risk to drafting them just based of the competition they have faced, but both could be starting quarterbacks at some point in their career.
I haven't spent a ton of time watching film on any of the quarterbacks that I've named in this, so this is all purely on stats, and what I've seen in the past with other quarterbacks. What I do know is that the Texans wasted the career of Andre Johnson by not getting one of the best receivers in NFL history, and one of the best all around guys in the NFL, a championship, and I don't want them to do the same with JJ Watt, so they need to get this figured out quick. I think Kirk Cousins is the best option to take advantage of the prime of Watt and Hopkins before older guys on the defense like Jonathan Joseph and Vince Wilfork start regressing talent-wise. Connor Cook and Brock Osweiler could also be possibilities, but I don't think they can get us over the hump as a first round playoff team year in and year out. This team is built on defense, and a solid running game and a quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over will get this team over the hump.
I am sorry. Thank you for your support all year.
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) January 10, 2016
This guy needs a Super Bowl. ASAP.
I'm just going to leave this here, because it's awesome. Go Texans.
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